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Weekly Insight

Holding The Line

02 March 2026
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Holding The Line

Global Markets

Global markets were defensive this week, driven by a rotation from growth/AI to defensive sectors. Negative sentiment was triggered by high AI valuations, hot PPI, and US-Iran tensions. Yield UST 10Y fell to 3.9% due to increased safe haven demand, while non-US markets were more resilient (EAFE & EM rose), reflecting diversification away from US big tech. Next week, markets are expected to be volatile, focus will be on ISM PMI, JOLTS, Jobless Claims, ADP, and NFP, which will influence Fed rate expectations. The rotation toward defensive stocks, large-caps, bonds, and commodities continues, while aggressive leverage should be avoided.


Indonesian Markets

Indonesian market moved mixed and defensively, influenced by global and domestic sentiment. Stocks, bonds, and commodity markets showed moderate volatility. Foreign net selling increased, SBN yields were stable-to strong, especially for medium to long tenors. Next week, the market is expected to adopt a wait and see approach, focusing on rupiah stability, yield direction, foreign inflows, and global data affecting Fed interest rate expectations (NFP, ISM PMI) and domestic indicators such as the consumer confidence index and Q1 growth projections >5.39%, driven by improved labor absorption and seasonal consumption momentum ahead of Eid al-Fitr.


Weekly Highlight on Economic Indicators


Our Take:

JCI fell -0.44% to 8,235 from 8,271, with market capitalization down 1.03% due to foreign net selling pressure of Rp694 billion. The decline was triggered by negative sentiment surrounding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty over US tariffs, and warnings from S&P regarding Indonesia's fiscal risks. Despite the correction, trading activity increased significantly, with daily transaction values rising 25.35%. The JCI remained resilient despite facing global and domestic pressures, with dynamic trading.

Investment recommendations for our investors (in order of preference):
Equity Fund > Fixed Income Fund > Balanced Fund > Money Market Fund


Author : KBVAM Investment Team

Source: Bloomberg, Infovesta, Trading Economics

DISCLAIMER :
INVESTMENT THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS CONTAINS RISKS. PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE PROSPECTUS BEFORE DECIDING TO INVEST THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT REFLECT FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

This document was prepared based on information from reliable sources by PT KB Valbury Asset Management. PT KB Valbury Asset Management does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information and materials provided. PT KB Valbury Asset Management Indonesia is not responsible for any legal and financial consequences arising, whether against or suffered by any person or party and in any way deemed to be a result of actions taken on the basis of all or part of this document.