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Weekly Insight

Negative Bias Phase

25 March 2026
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Negative Bias Phase

Global Markets

Global markets weakened amid escalating Middle East tensions after Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s energy facilities if the Strait of Hormuz was not opened, and Iran retaliated with threats against regional energy infrastructure driving up oil prices, inflation, and expectations of higher interest rates, which weighed on stocks and pushed up yields. This week, markets remain volatile and dependent on geopolitical developments and energy prices, with a focus on global PMI releases as the main catalyst, accompanied by other key data such as the UK CPI, U.S. durable goods orders, jobless claims, and consumer sentiment.


Indonesian Markets

Indonesia’s financial markets were volatile and trended lower due to global pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict, which triggered rising oil prices, capital outflows, and a weakening rupiah, amid limited trading and the Bank of Indonesia maintaining its hawkish stance at 4.75%. This week, the market remains shrouded in global uncertainty, so movements are expected to remain volatile with a greater risk of decline, although there is a chance of a rebound; therefore, the strategy remains defensive and selective.


Weekly Highlight on Economic Indicators


Our Take:

IHSG dropped -4.49% WoW to 7,106 amid low trading volume ahead of the long holiday, reflecting a consolidation phase with a negative bias. Market activity declined (volume -5.75%, frequency -15.28%), indicating a wait and see stance, but the surge in transaction value (+17.65%) suggests institutional dominance and rotation in large cap stocks. External pressures such as geopolitical escalation, rising oil prices, and a strengthening US dollar have led to defensive tendencies and increased interest in safe-haven assets.

Investment recommendations for our investors (in order of preference):
Fixed Income Fund > Money Market Fund > Balanced Fund > Equity Fund


Author : KBVAM Investment Team

Source: Bloomberg, Infovesta, Trading Economics

DISCLAIMER :
INVESTMENT THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS CONTAINS RISKS. PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE PROSPECTUS BEFORE DECIDING TO INVEST THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT REFLECT FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

This document was prepared based on information from reliable sources by PT KB Valbury Asset Management. PT KB Valbury Asset Management does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information and materials provided. PT KB Valbury Asset Management Indonesia is not responsible for any legal and financial consequences arising, whether against or suffered by any person or party and in any way deemed to be a result of actions taken on the basis of all or part of this document.