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Weekly Insight

Edge of Uncertainty

30 March 2026
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Edge of Uncertainty

Global Markets

Global markets weakened amid high volatility due to the escalation of the U.S.–Iran conflict, against a backdrop of conflicting uncertainties surrounding peace negotiations. This drove a surge in oil prices, heightened expectations of inflation and higher for longer interest rates, and triggered risk-off sentiment and stagflation concerns. Looking ahead to next week, markets are expected to remain volatile with a downward bias, influenced by the progress of those negotiations, oil price movements, and key data (ISM, ADP, NFP), though there is potential for a temporary rally amid oversold conditions and thin liquidity ahead of Good Friday.


Indonesian Markets

Indonesia’s financial markets weakened last week amid consolidation driven by global risk-off sentiment (rising oil prices, high U.S. Treasury yields), pressure on the rupiah, and foreign capital outflows, although fundamentals remained stable. Next week, JCI is expected to see limited movement with a downward bias, with focus on inflation (risks from Ramadan and food/energy prices), the trade balance, and the manufacturing PMI; sentiment will remain bearish in the short term if inflation is high or the PMI weakens, which could put pressure on the rupiah and the JCI.


Weekly Highlight on Economic Indicators


Our Take:

JCI dropped -0.14% WoW to 7,097, with market capitalization down 0.24%, although liquidity remained solid and foreign investors continued to be net sellers. The market was dominated by consolidation, briefly strengthening on the back of the banking sector, but was held back by global pressures (a strong dollar, rising US yields) that triggered profit-taking and outflows. The energy sector held up amid rising commodity prices, while the lack of domestic catalysts made the market more sensitive to external factors.

Investment recommendations for our investors (in order of preference):
Fixed Income Fund > Money Market Fund > Balanced Fund > Equity Fund


Author : KBVAM Investment Team

Source: Bloomberg, Infovesta, Trading Economics

DISCLAIMER :
INVESTMENT THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS CONTAINS RISKS. PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE PROSPECTUS BEFORE DECIDING TO INVEST THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT REFLECT FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

This document was prepared based on information from reliable sources by PT KB Valbury Asset Management. PT KB Valbury Asset Management does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information and materials provided. PT KB Valbury Asset Management Indonesia is not responsible for any legal and financial consequences arising, whether against or suffered by any person or party and in any way deemed to be a result of actions taken on the basis of all or part of this document.