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Weekly Insight

Upside Gains

27 October 2025
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Upside Gains

Global Markets

Global financial markets moved fluctuatively amid a combination of U.S.–China–Russia geopolitical tensions and expectations of global monetary easing. The U.S. government announced plans to limit software exports to China, but tensions eased after both countries signaled a preliminary agreement ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting scheduled for October 30, 2025. In Europe, the 10-year German and French bond yields climbed to 2.63% and 3.43%, respectively, while the U.K. gilt yield fell to 4.43% following softer-than-expected inflation data, reinforcing expectations of a more dovish Bank of England.


Indonesian Markets

Domestically, Bank Indonesia (BI) surprised the market by maintaining its policy rate at 4.75%, defying expectations of a 25-bps cut to 4.50%. BI emphasized that inflation remains within its 2.5% ±1% target range, with its current stance focused on Rupiah stability and supporting monetary transmission.


Weekly Highlight on Economic Indicators


Our Take:

Equities: Momentum is likely to remain positive toward year end 2025. The JCI could test 8,350 – 8,425 if the Fed confirms a 25 bps rate cut and BI maintains liquidity support. Bonds: The domestic bond market may trade sideways to slightly bullish. A Fed cut and lower inflation expectations should compress yields gradually toward 5.80 % (10-year). However, profit-taking and supply from government issuance will cap upside gains.

The recommendation for investment to our investors (in order):
Fixed Income Fund > Equity Fund > Balanced Fund > Money Market Fund.


Author : KBVAM Investment Team

Source: Bloomberg, Infovesta, Trading Economics

DISCLAIMER :
INVESTMENT THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS CONTAINS RISKS. PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE PROSPECTUS BEFORE DECIDING TO INVEST THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT REFLECT FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

This document was prepared based on information from reliable sources by PT KB Valbury Asset Management. PT KB Valbury Asset Management does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information and materials provided. PT KB Valbury Asset Management Indonesia is not responsible for any legal and financial consequences arising, whether against or suffered by any person or party and in any way deemed to be a result of actions taken on the basis of all or part of this document.