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Weekly Insight

Trade Tension

14 May 2025
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Trade Tension

Global Markets

Following two days of high-stakes talks in Switzerland, trade negotiators from the world’s biggest economies announced a significant tariff deescalation on Monday. In a carefully coordinated joint statement, the US reduced duties on Chinese products to 30% from 145% for 90 days, while Beijing lowered its levy on most goods to 10%.

This easing of US-China trade tensions offers investors the clearest signal yet that the Trump administration is adopting a softer stance after recent market-disrupting clashes. Consequently, with increased optimism that the US economy can avoid a recession, traders now anticipate only two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.


Indonesian Markets

Indonesia's Q1 GDP grew by 4.87% YoY, according to BPS, falling short of the 4.92% economists' expectation. Contributing factors included a 4.89% YoY expansion in private consumption, a 1.38% YoY contraction in government spending, a 2.12% YoY increase in gross fixed capital formation, and a substantial 6.78% YoY growth in exports.

The JCI maintained its upward trend, albeit at a slower pace, with a 0.25% increase. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year government bond decreased to 6.83%, and the rupiah showed limited movement at 16,532 against the US dollar.


Weekly Highlight on Economic Indicators


Our Take:

Our funds continue to show positive performance. Valbury Prime Dynamic Equity recorded a gain of 0.47% (BM: 0.65%), Valbury Investasi Berimbang rose by 1.17% (BM: 0.32%), and Valbury Stable Growth Fund increased by 0.35% (BM: 0.18%).

The moderation of trade tensions, which should lessen imported inflationary pressures, coupled with Indonesia's weaker-than-anticipated GDP growth, makes it more probable that Bank Indonesia will consider an interest rate cut at its upcoming meeting this month.

The recommendation for investment to our investors (in order) :
Money Market Fund > Fixed Income Fund > Balanced Fund > Equity Fund.


Author : KBVAM Investment Team

Source: Bloomberg, Infovesta, Trading Economics

DISCLAIMER :
INVESTMENT THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS CONTAINS RISKS. PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE PROSPECTUS BEFORE DECIDING TO INVEST THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT REFLECT FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

This document was prepared based on information from reliable sources by PT KB Valbury Asset Management. PT KB Valbury Asset Management does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information and materials provided. PT KB Valbury Asset Management Indonesia is not responsible for any legal and financial consequences arising, whether against or suffered by any person or party and in any way deemed to be a result of actions taken on the basis of all or part of this document.