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Weekly Insight

Rupiah Holds Steady

18 February 2025
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Rupiah Holds Steady

Global Markets

January's 0.9% drop in US retail sales—the steepest in nearly two years— signals a consumer spending pullback after late 2024's surge. This reignites Fed rate cut hopes despite strong inflation data. The bond market reacted positively to the news, closing the week with substantial gains. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 remained near its record highs, and the dollar weakened, reaching a new low for 2025.

DeepSeek's AI advancements are contributing to a shift in investment flows, with stock funds returning to China from India. This resurgence is reflected in a combined market capitalization increase of over $1.3 trillion for Chinese onshore and offshore equities in the past month, contrasting sharply with a more than $720 billion decline in India's market value. Specifically, the China SSE rose 1.30%, and the Hong Kong HSI saw a substantial 7.04% gain.


Indonesian Markets

Indonesia's capital market showed mixed results again last week. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) continued its decline, falling 1.54%, while the 10-year government bond yield dropped significantly to 6.74%.

Prabowo announced that Danantara will start operations this month. The sovereign wealth fund will invest in sustainable, high-impact projects across various sectors, with the goal of contributing to the country's 8% economic growth target. However, experts have raised concerns regarding the fund's strategy, governance, and its ability to achieve this ambitious objective.


Weekly Highlight on Economic Indicators


Our Take:

Our fixed income fund capitalized on the bond market rally with continued strong performance. Besides, despite the stock market downturn, our equity and balanced funds outperformed the market.

Valbury Prime Dynamic Equity declined by 0.32% (BM: -0.54%), Valbury Investasi Berimbang improved by 0.09% (BM: -0.06%), Valbury Stable Growth Fund gained 0.40 (BM: 0.33%) and Valbury Money Market I increased by 0.10% (BM: 0.09%). Softer recent U.S. economic data is providing support for a more stable rupiah and potentially giving Bank Indonesia (BI) room for future rate cuts. However, we expect BI to hold rates steady at this week's meeting.

The recommendation for investment to our investors (in order) :
Fixed Income Fund > Money Market Fund > Balanced Fund > Equity Fund.


Author : KBVAM Investment Team


DISCLAIMER :
INVESTMENT THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS CONTAINS RISKS. PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE PROSPECTUS BEFORE DECIDING TO INVEST THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT REFLECT FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

This document was prepared based on information from reliable sources by PT KB Valbury Asset Management. PT KB Valbury Asset Management does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information and materials provided. PT KB Valbury Asset Management Indonesia is not responsible for any legal and financial consequences arising, whether against or suffered by any person or party and in any way deemed to be a result of actions taken on the basis of all or part of this document.