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Weekly Insight

Market Breakthrough

05 January 2026
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Market Breakthrough

Global Markets

Over the past week, the US stock market has been mixed with low volatility amid thin post-holiday volumes, with profit-taking on technology/AI stocks weighing on the Nasdaq, while the Dow Jones has been relatively more resilient, supported by cyclical stocks. Globally, markets are tending to wait and see, influenced by expectations of Fed policy, fluctuations in US Treasury yields, and consolidation after the strong rally in 2025. Entering this week, sentiment could potentially worsen amid geopolitical escalation following the US attack on Venezuela and the detention of the Venezuelan president, as well as statements of US control over the oil sector, which increase global geopolitical risk and drive rotation into safe haven assets (USD, gold). Looking ahead, the market is expected to be more active but remain range-bound, with a focus on early January US economic data (employment, PMI, inflation) and Fed communications. Defensive sectors and fundamentally strong stocks are likely to be favored, while highly valued stocks remain vulnerable to correction.


Indonesian Markets

Last week, Indonesia's financial markets closed positively despite limited liquidity due to the New Year holidays, with gains at the start of the year reflecting risk-on sentiment after the holidays. Support came from December 2025's manufacturing PMI, which remained at an expansionary level of 51.2, despite slowing from 53.3 in November, indicating continued growth but at a more moderate pace. Looking ahead, market attention will focus on the release of December 2025 inflation and trade balance data as determinants of policy expectations and external stability. Globally, the Fed minutes revealed differing views on the timing of interest rate cuts in 2026, but the easing bias remains supportive of risk asset sentiment.


Weekly Highlight on Economic Indicators


Our Take:

The stock market index (JCI) increased by +2.4% WoW to 8,748 in the past week. The year 2025 ended strongly overall with the JCI rising around 22% YoY, the best annual performance since 2014, driven by conglomerate stocks, dovish central bank policies, and investor inflows. The positive catalyst driving the JCI came from market optimism regarding Finance Minister Purbaya's confidence that the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) in 2026 has the potential to break through the 10,000 level or higher. This optimism is also reflected in the strengthening of the JCI in 2025, as well as market participants' confidence in future economic improvement.

Investment recommendations for our investors (in order of preference):
Equity Fund > Fixed Income Fund > Balanced Fund > Money Market Fund


Author : KBVAM Investment Team

Source: Bloomberg, Infovesta, Trading Economics

DISCLAIMER :
INVESTMENT THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS CONTAINS RISKS. PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE PROSPECTUS BEFORE DECIDING TO INVEST THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT REFLECT FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

This document was prepared based on information from reliable sources by PT KB Valbury Asset Management. PT KB Valbury Asset Management does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information and materials provided. PT KB Valbury Asset Management Indonesia is not responsible for any legal and financial consequences arising, whether against or suffered by any person or party and in any way deemed to be a result of actions taken on the basis of all or part of this document.