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Weekly Insight

Bullish Breakout

12 January 2026
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Bullish Breakout

Global Markets

The US global market closed strongly, with major indices posting weekly gains, driven by a rotation into the raw materials and industrial sectors, as US labor data softened but still reflected a resilient economy, reinforcing the soft landing narrative. However, expectations for interest rate cuts remain limited as US Treasury yields remain high. This week's focus shifts to the release of U.S. inflation (CPI) and the start of the Q4 earnings season, with the main attention on 2026 earnings guidance to test the sustainability of the January Effect amid already elevated market valuations and profit taking risks.


Indonesian Markets

Indonesian market is moving constructively, supported by a rotation to value stocks and solid investor participation with neutral foreign inflows. The bond market is cautious with limited SBN yield increases following global trends, a stable rupiah, and inflation remaining within Bank Indonesia's target. This week, the market is likely to move sideways with volatility remaining contained, awaiting the Trade Balance (surplus), the start of FY2025 banking earnings, and US data shaping Federal Reserve expectations, although short term profit taking remains a risk.


Weekly Highlight on Economic Indicators


Our Take:

The JCI increased +2.16% WoW to 8,936, hitting a consecutive ATH of 8,944.8 and briefly breaking through 9,000 intraday (peak 9,002.9), confirming the domestic risk-on momentum. The IDX market capitalization rose +1.79% WoW to IDR 16,301 trillion, supported by foreign net buying of IDR 2.56 trillion in a week and IDR 3.1 trillion YTD 2026. Liquidity surged significantly, reflected in the average daily transaction value of +44.68% WoW to IDR 31.45 trillion. Technically, the JCI trend remains bullish as long as the index stays above the bullish trendline, the opportunity for a continued rally remains open with correction risks still manageable.

Investment recommendations for our investors (in order of preference):
Equity Fund > Fixed Income Fund > Balanced Fund > Money Market Fund


Author : KBVAM Investment Team

Source: Bloomberg, Infovesta, Trading Economics

DISCLAIMER :
INVESTMENT THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS CONTAINS RISKS. PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE PROSPECTUS BEFORE DECIDING TO INVEST THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT REFLECT FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

This document was prepared based on information from reliable sources by PT KB Valbury Asset Management. PT KB Valbury Asset Management does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information and materials provided. PT KB Valbury Asset Management Indonesia is not responsible for any legal and financial consequences arising, whether against or suffered by any person or party and in any way deemed to be a result of actions taken on the basis of all or part of this document.