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Weekly Insight

Correction Phase

26 January 2026
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Correction Phase

Global Markets

Global markets are volatile with a cautious bias amid geopolitical risks. Pressure from US tariff issues eased as threats related to Greenland were lifted, supported by the US GDP for the third quarter of 2025 being revised upward from 4.3% to 4.4%, without inflationary pressure and improving global sentiment, encouraging limited risk-on sentiment. President Trump has added to political tensions by imposing new sanctions and hinting at potential military action against Iran. The Fed is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%. Next week's focus will be on the FOMC, with market direction determined by Powell's tone on the timing of interest rate cuts in 2026 and the release of PPI and labor data that could trigger volatility.


Indonesian Markets

Domestic stock market recorded a decline, pressured by profit taking, a strengthening US dollar, and rising US Treasury yields, which triggered foreign outflows. In addition, the volatility of the rupiah and policy uncertainty following the revocation of PT Agincourt Resources' Martabe gold mining permit also affected market sentiment. Next week, the market is expected to consolidate, with investors awaiting the announcement of MSCI's free float calculation methodology (30/01) and monitoring domestic macro data and FY2025 banking-consumption financial reports, with external risks remaining dominant from the US Core PCE and the direction of Fed policy.


Weekly Highlight on Economic Indicators


Our Take:

The JCI corrected 1.37% WoW to 8,951 from 9,075, with high volatility, despite briefly hitting an ATH of 9,134. Liquidity increased (ADV +9.32%; transaction value +3.59%), but market capitalization dropped 1.62% to IDR 16,244 trillion, reflecting dominant selling pressure. The decline was triggered by a net foreign sell of IDR 3.25 trillion, led by banking and mining; sectorally, the decline was led by Transportation & Logistics, Industrials, Energy, and Technology, signaling a correction phase with a cautious bias amid active investor distribution.

The recommendation for investment to our investors (in order):
Equity Fund > Fixed Income Fund > Balanced Fund > Money Market Fund.


Author : KBVAM Investment Team

Source: Bloomberg, Infovesta, Trading Economics

DISCLAIMER :
INVESTMENT THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS CONTAINS RISKS. PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE PROSPECTUS BEFORE DECIDING TO INVEST THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT REFLECT FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

This document was prepared based on information from reliable sources by PT KB Valbury Asset Management. PT KB Valbury Asset Management does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information and materials provided. PT KB Valbury Asset Management Indonesia is not responsible for any legal and financial consequences arising, whether against or suffered by any person or party and in any way deemed to be a result of actions taken on the basis of all or part of this document.