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Weekly Insight

Uncertainty

04 February 2025
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Uncertainty

Global Markets

The emergence of Deepseek triggered US market fluctuations earlier this week, but investor confidence has since rebounded seeing limited potential for the Chinese AI startup to affect the "Magnificent Seven's" performance. Despite this, S&P500 fall by 1% over the week, due to concerns about tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada.

In other news, the Fed decided to hold interest rates steady at 4.5% as expected and indicated that stalled progress toward lower inflation warranted a patient approach. This decision led to a rise in the US dollar, reaching 108.22.

Major Asian stock exchanges were closed for the holidays. During the shortened trading week, the Japan Nikkei 225 fell by 0.90%, the Korea KOSPI dropped by 0.77%, and the Singapore STI rose by 1.36%.


Indonesian Markets

In the two weeks following Bank Indonesia's surprising rate cut, the rupiah has remained relatively stable, though not without some fluctuations. The 10-year government bond yield closed last week at 6.97%, and the rupiah ended the week at 16,312 against the US dollar. The JCI, however, experienced high volatility in just two trading days last week, declining by 0.79%.


Weekly Highlight on Economic Indicators


Our Take:

We felt the impact of this week's market volatility on our funds. Valbury Prime Dynamic Equity decreased by 0.73% (BM: -0.42%), Valbury Investasi Berimbang decreased by 0.74% (BM: -0.15%). On the other hand, Valbury Money Market I increased by 0.09% (BM: 0.09%) and Valbury Stable Growth Fund increased by 0.01% (BM: 0.04%).

Going forward, the US tariff policy is expected to have repercussions beyond the directly affected countries, impacting the global market. Given the uncertainty surrounding its implementation, we anticipate continued market volatility.

The recommendation for investment to our investors (in order) :
Fixed Income Fund > Balanced Fund > Equity Fund > Money Market Fund.


Author : KBVAM Investment Team


DISCLAIMER :
INVESTMENT THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS CONTAINS RISKS. PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE PROSPECTUS BEFORE DECIDING TO INVEST THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT REFLECT FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

This document was prepared based on information from reliable sources by PT KB Valbury Asset Management. PT KB Valbury Asset Management does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information and materials provided. PT KB Valbury Asset Management Indonesia is not responsible for any legal and financial consequences arising, whether against or suffered by any person or party and in any way deemed to be a result of actions taken on the basis of all or part of this document.