aboutNews

Weekly Insight

Keep Stay

19 November 2024
  • download
Keep Stay

Global Markets

The stock market suffered its worst week in over two months, with the S&P 500 erasing more than half of its post-election rally. Investors also bet the Federal Reserve will have to slow the pace of policy easing with inflation and US retail sales showed stronger-than-expected figure. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed from 4.31% to 4.44% over the past week, reflecting a shift in market expectations.

Asian Markets

Asian stock markets reversed course after a strong week of gains. Hong Kong HIS, Korea KOSPI, China SSE, Japan Nikkei 225, fell by 6.28%, 5.48%, 3.52% and 2.18%, respectively. This week, China’s banks are expected to keep their loan prime rates unchanged after a cut in October.


Indonesian Markets

The Indonesian stock market mirrored global trends, with the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) falling 1.73%. The rupiah weakened significantly, depreciating from 15,671 to 15,888. Consequently, the 10-year government bond yield climbed sharply to 6.90% from 6.73%. This week, BI will deliver a policy decision as Rupiah neared 16,000 per dollar.


Weekly Highlight on Economic Indicators


Our Take:

Amidst global downturn, our funds also suffered. Valbury Stable Growth Fund declined by 0.66% (BM: -0.30%), Valbury Prime Dynamic Equity declined by 1.90% (BM: -1.93%), Valbury Investasi Berimbang declined by 2.03% (BM: -1.05%). Meanwhile, Valbury Money Market I rose by 0.10% (BM: 0.06%).

Looking ahead, we anticipate short-term volatility due to pending clarity on the US government transition and economic outlook. The economic growth of the world's two largest economies, the US and China, is expected to weaken in 2025 with Trump's potential pro-growth policies are a factor to watch.

In this environment, investors can stay invested to capture the potential from further interest rate cuts, but still maintain risk by having a diversified portfolio. Within this diversified portfolio we see room for investors to utilize allocations in bond funds, which offer defensive characteristics while still capturing the upside potential of interest rate cuts ahead. Though, we expect this week BI will maintain its interest rate at 6.00% to protect the Rupiah from further depreciation.

The recommendation for investment to our investors (in order) :

Fixed Income Fund > Balanced Fund > Equity Fund > Money Market Fund.


Author : KBVAM Investment Team


DISCLAIMER :
INVESTMENT THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS CONTAINS RISKS. PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE PROSPECTUS BEFORE DECIDING TO INVEST THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT REFLECT FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

This document was prepared based on information from reliable sources by PT KB Valbury Asset Management. PT KB Valbury Asset Management does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information and materials provided. PT KB Valbury Asset Management Indonesia is not responsible for any legal and financial consequences arising, whether against or suffered by any person or party and in any way deemed to be a result of actions taken on the basis of all or part of this document.