aboutNews

Weekly Insight

Be Steady

17 July 2024
  • download
Be Steady

Global Market Updates

The inflation rate in the US fell for 3 consecutive months to 3.0% YoY in June 2024, the lowest level since June 2023, lower than 3.3% YoY in May 2024 and below the consensus estimate of 3.1% YoY due to lower energy prices. The data encouraged an increase in investor expectations for US interest rate cuts and pressure on the USD Index, as well as a decline in US Treasury yields. (CNBC)

Asian Markets

The Chins headline inflation rate narrowed to 0.2% YoY in June 2024 from 0.3% YoY over the previous two months, lower than the consensus estimate of 0.4% YoY. Food prices fell by -2.1% YoY amid a fragile economic recovery, despite a sharp increase in pork prices during the Dragon Boat Festival. (Reuters)

China's trade surplus rose to USD99.05 billion in June 2024 from USD69.80 billion in May 2024, exceeding consensus expectations of USD85 billion. This is the largest trade surplus since July 2022 as exports grew by 8.6% YoY while imports fell by 2.3% YoY. (CNBC)


Indonesian Markets

Indonesia's consumer confidence index fell to 123.3 in June 2024 from 125.2 in May 2024, which is its lowest level since February 2024. Several sub-indices declined, namely economic outlook, income expectations, and job availability. (Reuters)



Weekly Highlight

This week, there will be domestic economic data releases for the balance of trade and the BI Governor's meeting decision. Globally, there will be economic information releases such as GDP growth from China, inflation rate from the UK, interest rate from the ECB, balance of trade, and inflation rate from Japan.



Our Take:

Global markets again showed divergent trends in 2Q24, with equities and gold making positive gains while bond returns were mixed. Equities was buoyed by resilient economic activity and a brighter corporate earnings outlook. Domestic earning growth expectations have been revised down post 1Q24 result but still decent at <9% for FY24F. Although there are some risks including Indonesia transition to new government as well as US election, therefore, we expect 2H outlook to be relatively steady vs 1H. At the June review and subsequent public remarks, Governor Warjiyo had suggested that the window to lower rates might open in 4Q24. We are mindful that the window for cuts hinges on the prevailing FX risks this quarter and the next. The incoming government’s fiscal bent and key cabinet appointees, especially for the finance portfolio, will also be matters of great interest.

As we did change (in our previous weekly update) our view for investor investment are (in order): Fixed Income Fund > Balanced Fund > Equity Fund > Money Market Fund


Author : KBVAM Investment Team


DISCLAIMER :
INVESTMENT THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS CONTAINS RISKS. PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE PROSPECTUS BEFORE DECIDING TO INVEST THROUGH MUTUAL FUNDS. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT REFLECT FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

This document was prepared based on information from reliable sources by PT KB Valbury Asset Management. PT KB Valbury Asset Management does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information and materials provided. PT KB Valbury Asset Management Indonesia is not responsible for any legal and financial consequences arising, whether against or suffered by any person or party and in any way deemed to be a result of actions taken on the basis of all or part of this document.